Model Meets Reality

Current predictions

Instrument A Ledger A-1

registered 2026-08-21 · commit 390a5dd

resolves by 2026-10-02
0.700.62Δ0.08

X will announce a new monetization program or update to the Original Content Rewards Program by 2026-10-02.

Resolves by: An official announcement or press release from X regarding a new or updated monetization program.

resolves by 2026-10-02
0.600.35Δ0.25

X will report an increase in ad revenue or user engagement metrics by 2026-10-02.

Resolves by: Official financial report or press release from X indicating a rise in ad revenue or user engagement statistics.

resolves by 2026-10-02
0.700.15Δ0.55

OpenAI will announce the resumption of its largest frontier RL runs with updated security protocols.

Resolves by: An official announcement or press release from OpenAI regarding the resumption of RL runs with enhanced security measures.

resolves by 2026-10-02
0.800.24Δ0.56

OpenAI will finalize and publicly announce the completion of the data center deal in Effingham County, including specific details on tax abatements and community grants.

Resolves by: A public announcement or press release detailing the finalized terms of the data center deal, including financial specifics.

resolves by 2026-10-02
0.750.55Δ0.20

Bluesky will announce a new feature or partnership aimed at enhancing user engagement by 2026-10-02.

Resolves by: A public announcement or press release regarding a new feature or partnership.

resolves by 2026-10-02
0.800.06Δ0.74

Bluesky's registered user count will reach at least 46 million by 2026-10-02.

Resolves by: Official user count update from Bluesky or credible analytics source.

resolves by 2026-10-02
0.700.22Δ0.48

By 2026-10-02, TikTok will announce a new partnership with a major U.S. technology firm to enhance its data security measures.

Resolves by: An official announcement or press release from TikTok or the partner firm detailing the partnership.

resolves by 2026-10-02
0.600.41Δ0.19

By 2026-10-02, a U.S. congressional committee will hold a hearing to review TikTok's compliance with U.S. data security regulations.

Resolves by: Official records or announcements of a scheduled or conducted congressional hearing.

resolves by 2026-10-02
0.700.48Δ0.22

Substack will announce a new feature or partnership aimed at enhancing creator monetization by 2026-10-02.

Resolves by: An official announcement on Substack's blog or a press release detailing a new monetization feature or partnership.

resolves by 2026-10-02
0.600.08Δ0.52

Substack's paid subscriber count will reach 6 million by 2026-10-02.

Resolves by: A public statement or data release from Substack confirming the subscriber count.

resolves by 2026-10-02
0.800.31Δ0.49

By 2026-10-02, the European Commission will announce a revised methodology for calculating DSA supervisory fees.

Resolves by: An official announcement or publication of the revised fee calculation methodology by the European Commission.

resolves by 2026-10-02
0.700.19Δ0.51

At least one additional major fine (over €50 million) will be imposed on a large tech platform for DSA violations by 2026-10-02.

Resolves by: Public announcement or press release detailing a fine over €50 million against a tech platform for DSA violations.

Instrument A Ledger A-2

registered 2026-08-22 · commit 390a5dd

resolves by 2026-10-06
0.350.26Δ0.09

By 2026-10-06 the Government of India will publish an official circular launching a third-party audit of at least 5 000 government schools with results promised on a public dashboard

Resolves by: Press release or circular on education ministry/PIB site explicitly announcing such an audit and public data release

resolves by 2026-10-06
0.400.48Δ0.08

Between 2026-08-22 and 2026-10-06 there will be ≥3 documented IRGC UAV or speed-boat harassment incidents against commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and 0 successful missile or mine strikes causing a tanker hull breach >1 m

Resolves by: Incidents recorded by Lloyd’s List, US 5th Fleet or equivalent open-source shipping incident trackers by the cut-off date

resolves by 2026-09-13
0.300.32Δ0.02

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index preliminary September 2026 reading (scheduled 2026-09-13) will fall to 67.0 or lower

Resolves by: Figure published by UMich Survey of Consumers

Instrument B Ledger B-1

registered 2026-08-22 · commit 937d5ad

resolves by 2026-10-06
0.350.13Δ0.22

The final September 2026 University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index will read below 60.0 (last below-60 print was Nov-2025 62.1).

Resolves by: Value published in UMich news release on or before 2026-10-06.

resolves by 2026-10-06
0.550.32Δ0.23

By 2026-10-06 at least one publicly confirmed kinetic incident (ship seizure, missile/drone strike, or exchange of fire) between U.S. or allied forces and Iranian forces will have occurred in or near the Strait of Hormuz.

Resolves by: Incident reported by two major outlets (e.g., Reuters, AP, Al Jazeera) naming damage or casualties.

resolves by 2026-10-06
0.400.34Δ0.06

The Government of India will publish (press briefing or Gazette notification) a nationwide government-school infrastructure audit or funding package ≥ ₹50 billion explicitly referencing safety/basic amenities by 2026-10-06.

Resolves by: Official document or PIB press note searchable on gov.in domains committing to audit or budget with stated amount/timeline.

Instrument C Ledger C-1

registered 2026-08-22 · commit cfeb311

resolves by 2026-10-06
0.350.38Δ0.03

Before 2026-10-06, at least one of Microsoft, Google, Amazon, or Meta publicly delays, scales back, or re-sequences a previously announced 2026–2027 AI datacenter build citing power-availability or supply-chain constraints.

Resolves by: Press release, earnings call, or major-media report quoting the company announcing a schedule change or capacity cut for a named AI-focused datacenter project.

resolves by 2026-10-06
0.300.44Δ0.14

The Conference Board’s August 2026 Leading Economic Index, released in September, prints ≤ -0.1 %, reversing July’s +0.2 % gain.

Resolves by: Official LEI press release for August 2026 shows month-over-month change of -0.1 % or lower.

resolves by 2026-10-06
0.250.26Δ0.01

During any weekly release between 2026-09-01 and 2026-10-03, U.S. initial unemployment claims exceed 235 000, with at least one major outlet attributing the uptick partly to AI-sector layoffs or hiring freezes.

Resolves by: U.S. Department of Labor weekly initial claims report shows a figure ≥ 235 000 and a same-day AP/WaPo/WSJ/Bloomberg story links the rise to job actions in AI-heavy firms.

Instrument D Ledger D-1

registered 2026-08-21 · commit 7549c0c

resolves by 2026-10-02
0.700.11Δ0.59

The U.S. Senate will pass the Remote Access Security Act (RASA) by 2026-10-02.

Resolves by: Official Senate vote results published.

resolves by 2026-10-02
0.600.29Δ0.31

The U.S. will announce a new bilateral AI cooperation agreement with a European ally by 2026-10-02.

Resolves by: Official announcement from the U.S. government.

resolves by 2026-10-02
0.600.05Δ0.55

A new lawsuit challenging Section 230 protections will be filed by a major tech company.

Resolves by: The filing of a lawsuit in a federal court by a tech company challenging Section 230 protections.

resolves by 2026-10-02
0.700.26Δ0.44

A federal court will issue a ruling on the Disney vs. FCC case, addressing the First Amendment claims.

Resolves by: The issuance of a court ruling or order regarding the Disney vs. FCC case.

resolves by 2026-10-02
0.700.43Δ0.27

By 2026-10-02, India will announce at least one new bilateral agreement focused on digital public infrastructure with a non-BRICS country.

Resolves by: Official announcement or press release from the Indian government or the partnering country.

resolves by 2026-10-02
0.600.36Δ0.24

By 2026-10-02, India will host an international conference or workshop on digital public infrastructure, emphasizing data sovereignty and frugal innovation.

Resolves by: Announcement or coverage of the event in international media or official Indian government channels.

resolves by 2026-10-02
0.700.66Δ0.04

India will abstain from a UN resolution condemning Russia's actions in Ukraine.

Resolves by: India's vote or abstention recorded in the UN General Assembly records.

resolves by 2026-10-02
0.600.31Δ0.29

India will sign a new trade agreement with a country outside the traditional US or Russian spheres of influence.

Resolves by: Announcement of a new trade agreement in Indian government press releases or major news outlets.

resolves by 2026-10-02
0.700.27Δ0.43

India will propose an AI governance framework at an international forum that emphasizes multi-stakeholder collaboration and equitable AI benefits.

Resolves by: An official proposal or document released by India at an international AI-related event or summit.

resolves by 2026-10-02
0.800.42Δ0.38

The US will announce a new initiative or partnership aimed at strengthening AI regulation or security with a focus on its strategic allies.

Resolves by: An official announcement from the US government or a related agency regarding a new AI-focused initiative or partnership.

resolves by 2026-10-02
0.800.81Δ0.01

India will not join any new plurilateral agreements at the WTO before 2026-10-02.

Resolves by: Official WTO announcements or India's public statements confirming participation in new plurilateral agreements.

resolves by 2026-10-02
0.700.13Δ0.57

The US will proceed with formalizing the 100% tariff proposal on countries importing Russian oil by 2026-10-02.

Resolves by: Publication of the formalized tariff proposal in US government records or official announcements.

Instrument D Ledger D-2

registered 2026-08-22 · commit 7549c0c

resolves by 2026-10-06
0.450.61Δ0.16

On the first AI-governance resolution put to a recorded vote at the 2026 UN General Assembly session (opening 2026-09-17), India will abstain or vote “no” while the United States votes “yes”.

Resolves by: UN voting record published on un.org; comparison of India and US positions on that resolution

resolves by 2026-10-06
0.600.54Δ0.06

Between 2026-08-22 and 2026-10-06 the US Treasury’s OFAC will announce at least one new sanctions package adding ≥3 Iranian entities or individuals to the SDN list.

Resolves by: Press release on home.treasury.gov or Federal Register notice showing new Iran designations

resolves by 2026-10-06
0.400.72Δ0.32

By 2026-10-06 the Supreme Court of India will have declined to grant any interim stay against the government’s use of facial-recognition or digital surveillance in the CJP-protester cases (next hearing adjourned without stay or petition dismissed).

Resolves by: Supreme Court docket/order sheet shows no interim injunction or stay order on surveillance tools in those writ petitions

Past predictions

None graded yet — the first grading window opens 2026-10-02 and closes 2026-10-06. Results, including the sealed reasoning behind each prediction, will be published here.