{
 "registered_on": "2026-08-22",
 "baseline": "same underlying LLM, no instrument reasoning in context",
 "predictions": [
  {
   "instrument": "A",
   "ledger": "A-1",
   "commit": "390a5dd",
   "made_on": "2026-08-21",
   "resolve_by": "2026-10-02",
   "claim": "X will announce a new monetization program or update to the Original Content Rewards Program by 2026-10-02.",
   "criteria": "An official announcement or press release from X regarding a new or updated monetization program.",
   "instrument_p": 0.7,
   "baseline_p": 0.62,
   "status": "open",
   "id": "A-1.01"
  },
  {
   "instrument": "A",
   "ledger": "A-1",
   "commit": "390a5dd",
   "made_on": "2026-08-21",
   "resolve_by": "2026-10-02",
   "claim": "X will report an increase in ad revenue or user engagement metrics by 2026-10-02.",
   "criteria": "Official financial report or press release from X indicating a rise in ad revenue or user engagement statistics.",
   "instrument_p": 0.6,
   "baseline_p": 0.35,
   "status": "open",
   "id": "A-1.02"
  },
  {
   "instrument": "A",
   "ledger": "A-1",
   "commit": "390a5dd",
   "made_on": "2026-08-21",
   "resolve_by": "2026-10-02",
   "claim": "OpenAI will announce the resumption of its largest frontier RL runs with updated security protocols.",
   "criteria": "An official announcement or press release from OpenAI regarding the resumption of RL runs with enhanced security measures.",
   "instrument_p": 0.7,
   "baseline_p": 0.15,
   "status": "open",
   "id": "A-1.03"
  },
  {
   "instrument": "A",
   "ledger": "A-1",
   "commit": "390a5dd",
   "made_on": "2026-08-21",
   "resolve_by": "2026-10-02",
   "claim": "OpenAI will finalize and publicly announce the completion of the data center deal in Effingham County, including specific details on tax abatements and community grants.",
   "criteria": "A public announcement or press release detailing the finalized terms of the data center deal, including financial specifics.",
   "instrument_p": 0.8,
   "baseline_p": 0.24,
   "status": "open",
   "id": "A-1.04"
  },
  {
   "instrument": "A",
   "ledger": "A-1",
   "commit": "390a5dd",
   "made_on": "2026-08-21",
   "resolve_by": "2026-10-02",
   "claim": "Bluesky will announce a new feature or partnership aimed at enhancing user engagement by 2026-10-02.",
   "criteria": "A public announcement or press release regarding a new feature or partnership.",
   "instrument_p": 0.75,
   "baseline_p": 0.55,
   "status": "open",
   "id": "A-1.05"
  },
  {
   "instrument": "A",
   "ledger": "A-1",
   "commit": "390a5dd",
   "made_on": "2026-08-21",
   "resolve_by": "2026-10-02",
   "claim": "Bluesky's registered user count will reach at least 46 million by 2026-10-02.",
   "criteria": "Official user count update from Bluesky or credible analytics source.",
   "instrument_p": 0.8,
   "baseline_p": 0.06,
   "status": "open",
   "id": "A-1.06"
  },
  {
   "instrument": "A",
   "ledger": "A-1",
   "commit": "390a5dd",
   "made_on": "2026-08-21",
   "resolve_by": "2026-10-02",
   "claim": "By 2026-10-02, TikTok will announce a new partnership with a major U.S. technology firm to enhance its data security measures.",
   "criteria": "An official announcement or press release from TikTok or the partner firm detailing the partnership.",
   "instrument_p": 0.7,
   "baseline_p": 0.22,
   "status": "open",
   "id": "A-1.07"
  },
  {
   "instrument": "A",
   "ledger": "A-1",
   "commit": "390a5dd",
   "made_on": "2026-08-21",
   "resolve_by": "2026-10-02",
   "claim": "By 2026-10-02, a U.S. congressional committee will hold a hearing to review TikTok's compliance with U.S. data security regulations.",
   "criteria": "Official records or announcements of a scheduled or conducted congressional hearing.",
   "instrument_p": 0.6,
   "baseline_p": 0.41,
   "status": "open",
   "id": "A-1.08"
  },
  {
   "instrument": "A",
   "ledger": "A-1",
   "commit": "390a5dd",
   "made_on": "2026-08-21",
   "resolve_by": "2026-10-02",
   "claim": "Substack will announce a new feature or partnership aimed at enhancing creator monetization by 2026-10-02.",
   "criteria": "An official announcement on Substack's blog or a press release detailing a new monetization feature or partnership.",
   "instrument_p": 0.7,
   "baseline_p": 0.48,
   "status": "open",
   "id": "A-1.09"
  },
  {
   "instrument": "A",
   "ledger": "A-1",
   "commit": "390a5dd",
   "made_on": "2026-08-21",
   "resolve_by": "2026-10-02",
   "claim": "Substack's paid subscriber count will reach 6 million by 2026-10-02.",
   "criteria": "A public statement or data release from Substack confirming the subscriber count.",
   "instrument_p": 0.6,
   "baseline_p": 0.08,
   "status": "open",
   "id": "A-1.10"
  },
  {
   "instrument": "A",
   "ledger": "A-1",
   "commit": "390a5dd",
   "made_on": "2026-08-21",
   "resolve_by": "2026-10-02",
   "claim": "By 2026-10-02, the European Commission will announce a revised methodology for calculating DSA supervisory fees.",
   "criteria": "An official announcement or publication of the revised fee calculation methodology by the European Commission.",
   "instrument_p": 0.8,
   "baseline_p": 0.31,
   "status": "open",
   "id": "A-1.11"
  },
  {
   "instrument": "A",
   "ledger": "A-1",
   "commit": "390a5dd",
   "made_on": "2026-08-21",
   "resolve_by": "2026-10-02",
   "claim": "At least one additional major fine (over €50 million) will be imposed on a large tech platform for DSA violations by 2026-10-02.",
   "criteria": "Public announcement or press release detailing a fine over €50 million against a tech platform for DSA violations.",
   "instrument_p": 0.7,
   "baseline_p": 0.19,
   "status": "open",
   "id": "A-1.12"
  },
  {
   "instrument": "D",
   "ledger": "D-1",
   "commit": "7549c0c",
   "made_on": "2026-08-21",
   "resolve_by": "2026-10-02",
   "claim": "The U.S. Senate will pass the Remote Access Security Act (RASA) by 2026-10-02.",
   "criteria": "Official Senate vote results published.",
   "instrument_p": 0.7,
   "baseline_p": 0.11,
   "status": "open",
   "id": "D-1.01"
  },
  {
   "instrument": "D",
   "ledger": "D-1",
   "commit": "7549c0c",
   "made_on": "2026-08-21",
   "resolve_by": "2026-10-02",
   "claim": "The U.S. will announce a new bilateral AI cooperation agreement with a European ally by 2026-10-02.",
   "criteria": "Official announcement from the U.S. government.",
   "instrument_p": 0.6,
   "baseline_p": 0.29,
   "status": "open",
   "id": "D-1.02"
  },
  {
   "instrument": "D",
   "ledger": "D-1",
   "commit": "7549c0c",
   "made_on": "2026-08-21",
   "resolve_by": "2026-10-02",
   "claim": "A new lawsuit challenging Section 230 protections will be filed by a major tech company.",
   "criteria": "The filing of a lawsuit in a federal court by a tech company challenging Section 230 protections.",
   "instrument_p": 0.6,
   "baseline_p": 0.05,
   "status": "open",
   "id": "D-1.03"
  },
  {
   "instrument": "D",
   "ledger": "D-1",
   "commit": "7549c0c",
   "made_on": "2026-08-21",
   "resolve_by": "2026-10-02",
   "claim": "A federal court will issue a ruling on the Disney vs. FCC case, addressing the First Amendment claims.",
   "criteria": "The issuance of a court ruling or order regarding the Disney vs. FCC case.",
   "instrument_p": 0.7,
   "baseline_p": 0.26,
   "status": "open",
   "id": "D-1.04"
  },
  {
   "instrument": "D",
   "ledger": "D-1",
   "commit": "7549c0c",
   "made_on": "2026-08-21",
   "resolve_by": "2026-10-02",
   "claim": "By 2026-10-02, India will announce at least one new bilateral agreement focused on digital public infrastructure with a non-BRICS country.",
   "criteria": "Official announcement or press release from the Indian government or the partnering country.",
   "instrument_p": 0.7,
   "baseline_p": 0.43,
   "status": "open",
   "id": "D-1.05"
  },
  {
   "instrument": "D",
   "ledger": "D-1",
   "commit": "7549c0c",
   "made_on": "2026-08-21",
   "resolve_by": "2026-10-02",
   "claim": "By 2026-10-02, India will host an international conference or workshop on digital public infrastructure, emphasizing data sovereignty and frugal innovation.",
   "criteria": "Announcement or coverage of the event in international media or official Indian government channels.",
   "instrument_p": 0.6,
   "baseline_p": 0.36,
   "status": "open",
   "id": "D-1.06"
  },
  {
   "instrument": "D",
   "ledger": "D-1",
   "commit": "7549c0c",
   "made_on": "2026-08-21",
   "resolve_by": "2026-10-02",
   "claim": "India will abstain from a UN resolution condemning Russia's actions in Ukraine.",
   "criteria": "India's vote or abstention recorded in the UN General Assembly records.",
   "instrument_p": 0.7,
   "baseline_p": 0.66,
   "status": "open",
   "id": "D-1.07"
  },
  {
   "instrument": "D",
   "ledger": "D-1",
   "commit": "7549c0c",
   "made_on": "2026-08-21",
   "resolve_by": "2026-10-02",
   "claim": "India will sign a new trade agreement with a country outside the traditional US or Russian spheres of influence.",
   "criteria": "Announcement of a new trade agreement in Indian government press releases or major news outlets.",
   "instrument_p": 0.6,
   "baseline_p": 0.31,
   "status": "open",
   "id": "D-1.08"
  },
  {
   "instrument": "D",
   "ledger": "D-1",
   "commit": "7549c0c",
   "made_on": "2026-08-21",
   "resolve_by": "2026-10-02",
   "claim": "India will propose an AI governance framework at an international forum that emphasizes multi-stakeholder collaboration and equitable AI benefits.",
   "criteria": "An official proposal or document released by India at an international AI-related event or summit.",
   "instrument_p": 0.7,
   "baseline_p": 0.27,
   "status": "open",
   "id": "D-1.09"
  },
  {
   "instrument": "D",
   "ledger": "D-1",
   "commit": "7549c0c",
   "made_on": "2026-08-21",
   "resolve_by": "2026-10-02",
   "claim": "The US will announce a new initiative or partnership aimed at strengthening AI regulation or security with a focus on its strategic allies.",
   "criteria": "An official announcement from the US government or a related agency regarding a new AI-focused initiative or partnership.",
   "instrument_p": 0.8,
   "baseline_p": 0.42,
   "status": "open",
   "id": "D-1.10"
  },
  {
   "instrument": "D",
   "ledger": "D-1",
   "commit": "7549c0c",
   "made_on": "2026-08-21",
   "resolve_by": "2026-10-02",
   "claim": "India will not join any new plurilateral agreements at the WTO before 2026-10-02.",
   "criteria": "Official WTO announcements or India's public statements confirming participation in new plurilateral agreements.",
   "instrument_p": 0.8,
   "baseline_p": 0.81,
   "status": "open",
   "id": "D-1.11"
  },
  {
   "instrument": "D",
   "ledger": "D-1",
   "commit": "7549c0c",
   "made_on": "2026-08-21",
   "resolve_by": "2026-10-02",
   "claim": "The US will proceed with formalizing the 100% tariff proposal on countries importing Russian oil by 2026-10-02.",
   "criteria": "Publication of the formalized tariff proposal in US government records or official announcements.",
   "instrument_p": 0.7,
   "baseline_p": 0.13,
   "status": "open",
   "id": "D-1.12"
  },
  {
   "instrument": "A",
   "ledger": "A-2",
   "commit": "390a5dd",
   "made_on": "2026-08-22",
   "resolve_by": "2026-10-06",
   "claim": "By 2026-10-06 the Government of India will publish an official circular launching a third-party audit of at least 5 000 government schools with results promised on a public dashboard",
   "criteria": "Press release or circular on education ministry/PIB site explicitly announcing such an audit and public data release",
   "instrument_p": 0.35,
   "baseline_p": 0.26,
   "status": "open",
   "id": "A-2.01"
  },
  {
   "instrument": "A",
   "ledger": "A-2",
   "commit": "390a5dd",
   "made_on": "2026-08-22",
   "resolve_by": "2026-10-06",
   "claim": "Between 2026-08-22 and 2026-10-06 there will be ≥3 documented IRGC UAV or speed-boat harassment incidents against commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and 0 successful missile or mine strikes causing a tanker hull breach >1 m",
   "criteria": "Incidents recorded by Lloyd’s List, US 5th Fleet or equivalent open-source shipping incident trackers by the cut-off date",
   "instrument_p": 0.4,
   "baseline_p": 0.48,
   "status": "open",
   "id": "A-2.02"
  },
  {
   "instrument": "A",
   "ledger": "A-2",
   "commit": "390a5dd",
   "made_on": "2026-08-22",
   "resolve_by": "2026-09-13",
   "claim": "The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index preliminary September 2026 reading (scheduled 2026-09-13) will fall to 67.0 or lower",
   "criteria": "Figure published by UMich Survey of Consumers",
   "instrument_p": 0.3,
   "baseline_p": 0.32,
   "status": "open",
   "id": "A-2.03"
  },
  {
   "instrument": "B",
   "ledger": "B-1",
   "commit": "937d5ad",
   "made_on": "2026-08-22",
   "resolve_by": "2026-10-06",
   "claim": "The final September 2026 University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index will read below 60.0 (last below-60 print was Nov-2025 62.1).",
   "criteria": "Value published in UMich news release on or before 2026-10-06.",
   "instrument_p": 0.35,
   "baseline_p": 0.13,
   "status": "open",
   "id": "B-1.01"
  },
  {
   "instrument": "B",
   "ledger": "B-1",
   "commit": "937d5ad",
   "made_on": "2026-08-22",
   "resolve_by": "2026-10-06",
   "claim": "By 2026-10-06 at least one publicly confirmed kinetic incident (ship seizure, missile/drone strike, or exchange of fire) between U.S. or allied forces and Iranian forces will have occurred in or near the Strait of Hormuz.",
   "criteria": "Incident reported by two major outlets (e.g., Reuters, AP, Al Jazeera) naming damage or casualties.",
   "instrument_p": 0.55,
   "baseline_p": 0.32,
   "status": "open",
   "id": "B-1.02"
  },
  {
   "instrument": "B",
   "ledger": "B-1",
   "commit": "937d5ad",
   "made_on": "2026-08-22",
   "resolve_by": "2026-10-06",
   "claim": "The Government of India will publish (press briefing or Gazette notification) a nationwide government-school infrastructure audit or funding package ≥ ₹50 billion explicitly referencing safety/basic amenities by 2026-10-06.",
   "criteria": "Official document or PIB press note searchable on gov.in domains committing to audit or budget with stated amount/timeline.",
   "instrument_p": 0.4,
   "baseline_p": 0.34,
   "status": "open",
   "id": "B-1.03"
  },
  {
   "instrument": "C",
   "ledger": "C-1",
   "commit": "cfeb311",
   "made_on": "2026-08-22",
   "resolve_by": "2026-10-06",
   "claim": "Before 2026-10-06, at least one of Microsoft, Google, Amazon, or Meta publicly delays, scales back, or re-sequences a previously announced 2026–2027 AI datacenter build citing power-availability or supply-chain constraints.",
   "criteria": "Press release, earnings call, or major-media report quoting the company announcing a schedule change or capacity cut for a named AI-focused datacenter project.",
   "instrument_p": 0.35,
   "baseline_p": 0.38,
   "status": "open",
   "id": "C-1.01"
  },
  {
   "instrument": "C",
   "ledger": "C-1",
   "commit": "cfeb311",
   "made_on": "2026-08-22",
   "resolve_by": "2026-10-06",
   "claim": "The Conference Board’s August 2026 Leading Economic Index, released in September, prints ≤ -0.1 %, reversing July’s +0.2 % gain.",
   "criteria": "Official LEI press release for August 2026 shows month-over-month change of -0.1 % or lower.",
   "instrument_p": 0.3,
   "baseline_p": 0.44,
   "status": "open",
   "id": "C-1.02"
  },
  {
   "instrument": "C",
   "ledger": "C-1",
   "commit": "cfeb311",
   "made_on": "2026-08-22",
   "resolve_by": "2026-10-06",
   "claim": "During any weekly release between 2026-09-01 and 2026-10-03, U.S. initial unemployment claims exceed 235 000, with at least one major outlet attributing the uptick partly to AI-sector layoffs or hiring freezes.",
   "criteria": "U.S. Department of Labor weekly initial claims report shows a figure ≥ 235 000 and a same-day AP/WaPo/WSJ/Bloomberg story links the rise to job actions in AI-heavy firms.",
   "instrument_p": 0.25,
   "baseline_p": 0.26,
   "status": "open",
   "id": "C-1.03"
  },
  {
   "instrument": "D",
   "ledger": "D-2",
   "commit": "7549c0c",
   "made_on": "2026-08-22",
   "resolve_by": "2026-10-06",
   "claim": "On the first AI-governance resolution put to a recorded vote at the 2026 UN General Assembly session (opening 2026-09-17), India will abstain or vote “no” while the United States votes “yes”.",
   "criteria": "UN voting record published on un.org; comparison of India and US positions on that resolution",
   "instrument_p": 0.45,
   "baseline_p": 0.61,
   "status": "open",
   "id": "D-2.01"
  },
  {
   "instrument": "D",
   "ledger": "D-2",
   "commit": "7549c0c",
   "made_on": "2026-08-22",
   "resolve_by": "2026-10-06",
   "claim": "Between 2026-08-22 and 2026-10-06 the US Treasury’s OFAC will announce at least one new sanctions package adding ≥3 Iranian entities or individuals to the SDN list.",
   "criteria": "Press release on home.treasury.gov or Federal Register notice showing new Iran designations",
   "instrument_p": 0.6,
   "baseline_p": 0.54,
   "status": "open",
   "id": "D-2.02"
  },
  {
   "instrument": "D",
   "ledger": "D-2",
   "commit": "7549c0c",
   "made_on": "2026-08-22",
   "resolve_by": "2026-10-06",
   "claim": "By 2026-10-06 the Supreme Court of India will have declined to grant any interim stay against the government’s use of facial-recognition or digital surveillance in the CJP-protester cases (next hearing adjourned without stay or petition dismissed).",
   "criteria": "Supreme Court docket/order sheet shows no interim injunction or stay order on surveillance tools in those writ petitions",
   "instrument_p": 0.4,
   "baseline_p": 0.72,
   "status": "open",
   "id": "D-2.03"
  }
 ],
 "grading_windows": [
  {
   "opens": "2026-10-02",
   "closes": "2026-10-06"
  }
 ],
 "schema": {
  "status": "open | hit | partial | miss | unresolvable",
  "grading_fields": "graded_on, what_happened, reasoning_unsealed (added when a prediction is graded)",
  "scoring": "Brier vs outcome (hit=1, partial=0.5, miss=0); unresolvable excluded"
 }
}